I like the Buffaloes here as I feel Illinois relies far too much on their three point shooting. They shoot the ball from beyond the arch 41.2% of the time and that just does not translate well on neutral court with shooting depth especially when you are only a 32.3% shooting team to begin with. Colorado is top 30 in 3 point defense on the road allowing just 30.4% and they are top 100 overall allowing 32.3% on the season. The Buffaloes also defend the paint well ranking 76th in 2 point defense while Illinois is 171st, and has allowed 56.6% over their last 3 games.
Illinois main scoring threat is Brandon Paul and I expect the Pac 12 defensive player of the year to be guarding him in Andre Roberson who has 3 inches on Paul and is also the nations second leading rebounder. That will be the difference in the game. Colorado will take the majority of their shots inside 71.3% of the time to be exact and that's where Illinois is vulnerable. Colorado also has a significant rebounding advantage in this game 52.2% rebounding percentage to Illinois 48.9%. The Buffs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big Ten teams, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games while Illinois is 8-18 ATS in their last 26 neutral site games.
